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College News
EMBARGO DATE: 22 June 2004
Meningococcal meningitis outbreaks explained by mathematics
Outbreaks of meningococcal meningitis depend on small differences in the pathogenicity of different bacterial strains, a new report indicates. About 5% - 25% of individuals carry meningococcal bacteria but do not have meningococcal disease. Only about 0.01 per cent of those carrying the bacteria actually contract meningitis or septicaemia.
Previous research has shown that meningococci vary in the ability to cause the disease depending on strain type. Approximately ten hyperinvasive strains are responsible for the majority of recent meningococcal disease outbreaks.
The research team, funded by The Wellcome Trust and consisting of Vincent Jansen and Nico Stollenwerk from Royal Holloway - University of London, and co-investigator Martin Maiden, University of Oxford, developed a mathematical model to determine whether the diversity of strains is related to outbreaks of meningococcal disease. The study shows that large outbreaks occur if meningococcal strains with a slightly higher than average disease-causing potential appear in the population.
Paradoxically, strains that
have only a weak potential to cause meningococcal disease are most likely
to cause large outbreaks. This has implications for the control and
management of meningococcal disease outbreaks.
ENDS
Editor's Notes
"Diversity in pathogenicity can cause outbreaks of meningococcal disease" by Nico Stollenwerk, Martin C.J. Maiden and Vincent A.A. Jansen. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, Online Early Edition.
The Wellcome Trust is an independent research-funding charity established in 1936 under the will of tropical medicine pioneer Sir Henry Wellcome. The Trust's mission is to promote research with the aim of improving human and animal health and it currently spends more than £400 million p.a.
Project team:
Vincent A.A. Jansen is Professor
of Mathematical Biology at the School of Biological Sciences, Royal
Holloway - University of London.
Martin C.J. Maiden is a Wellcome Trust Senior Research Fellow at the
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford.
Nico Stollenwerk is a postdoctoral research assistant at the School
of Biological Sciences, Royal Holloway - University of London.
Media Contacts
Vincent A.A. Jansen, Royal Holloway - University of London; tel. 44-
(0) 1784 443179, fax 44-(0) 1784-470756, or e-mail vincent.jansen@rhul.ac.uk
Martin C.J. Maiden, University of Oxford, tel. 44- (0) 1865-271284, fax 44- (0) 1865 271284 or e-mail martin.maiden@zoo.ox.ac.uk
Royal Holloway, University
of London, Press Office:
Christine Long
Press & PR Officer
01784 443967, christine.long@rhul.ac.uk
Vicky Cousins
Assistant Press & Communications Officer
01784 414480, victoria.cousins@rhul.ac.uk
